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缓和全球通胀,中国发挥积极作用

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2021年以来国际通胀水平明显上行,特别是今年以来国际通胀水平进一步快速上行,美欧等经济体物价连续创下多年或历史新高。得益于疫情防控得当、社会生产秩序稳定、宏观政策力度节奏把握精准,中国物价一直运行在总体合理区间,对稳定全球物价发挥了积极作用。

Inflation" has gradually become a buzzword in business and economic circles since 2021. In April, the year-on-year growth rates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States rose 8.3 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively. Right now the US CPI and PPI are still at four-decade high levels.
自2021以来,“通货膨胀”逐渐成为商界和经济界的热门词汇。4月份,美国消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)同比增长率分别上升8.3%和11.0%。目前,美国的CPI和PPI仍处于40年来的高位。


Europe is even worse in terms of inflation as European Union member states face energy shortages and geopolitical tensions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
由于欧盟成员国面临能源短缺和俄乌冲突引发的地缘政治紧张局势,欧洲的通货膨胀情况更为严重。


A combination of factors has contributed to the high inflation rates, including policy factors, supply issues and geopolitics, to name just a few.
政策因素、供应链问题和地缘政治等多重因素共同导致了高通胀率。


After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019, many countries adopted expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. Take the US as an example. Government departments launched a series of stimulus policies, including both monetary and fiscal policies in response to COVID-19. In March 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of the broad money supply (M2) rose from 6.7 percent to 10.2 percent, reaching a peak of 26.9 percent in February 2021. In addition, the Federal Reserve Board has also stimulated the economy through reducing interest rates and practicing quantitative easing.
2019年末新冠疫情暴发后,许多国家采取了扩张性货币和财政政策。以美国为例,为了应对疫情,美国政府推出了一系列刺激政策,包括货币和财政政策。2020年3月,广义货币供应量(M2)同比增长率从6.7%升至10.2%,2021年达到26.9%的峰值。此外,美联储委员会还通过降息和实行量化宽松政策刺激经济。


In terms of fiscal policy, the US government also introduced a series of stimulus programs. By early 2021, a number of fiscal stimulus policies were in place and paved the way for inflation. These programs involved a total amount of some $5 trillion, which was almost equal to a quarter of the US GDP in 2020. This is a striking stimulus program when we compare it to the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007-2008. At that time, the Obama Administration's fiscal stimulus policy stood at around $787 billion, which amounted to 5.4 percent of the US GDP in 2008. There is no doubt that US monetary and fiscal policies and the accompanying tremendous liquidity are very important causes of inflation in the US and the world as well.
美国政府还推出了一系列财政刺激计划。到2021年初,许多财政刺激政策已经落实,为通货膨胀铺平了道路。这些刺激计划共涉及约5万亿美元,几乎相当于2020年美国国内生产总值(GDP)的四分之一。与2007-2008年的次贷危机相比,这些刺激计划相当惊人。当时,奥巴马政府的财政刺激政策约为7870亿美元,相当于2008年美国GDP的5.4%。毫无疑问,美国的货币和财政政策以及因此引发的巨大流动性是导致美国和全球通胀的重要原因。


Other developed countries have also adopted similar stimulus policies. The money supply grew at a peak rate of 12.4 percent in the eurozone in January 2021. Another factor that must be kept in mind is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as it can lead to potential energy shortages, which further exacerbate inflation in the EU. As can be seen from statistics, the EU's PPI was as high as 31.5 percent and 36.8 percent in March and April 2022. Even the CPI, which rose relatively slower, reached 7.4 percent in April.
其他发达国家也采取了类似的刺激政策。2021年1月,欧元区的货币供应量增长率达到了12.4%的峰值。俄乌冲突是另一个必须关注的因素,因为这场冲突可能导致潜在的能源短缺,从而进一步加剧欧盟的通货膨胀。从统计数据可以看出,2022年3月和4月,欧盟的PPI分别高达31.5%和36.8%。即使是涨幅相对较慢的CPI在4月份也达到了7.4%。


Japan also adopted an extremely expansionary monetary policy. Even in April, when the US and other countries began to raise their interest rates, the Bank of Japan still stuck to an expansionary monetary policy. To achieve an expansionary effect, the BOJ continues to buy government bonds in order to suppress the interest rates of Japanese government bonds, thus injecting more liquidity into the market.
日本同样采取了极具扩张性的货币政策。今年4月,当美国和其他国家开始加息时,日本央行仍坚持扩张性货币政策。为了实现扩张效应,日本央行继续购买国债,从而向市场注入更多流动性。


In short, the expansionary monetary policies of the world's major developed countries are an important reason for the current global inflation.
总之,世界主要发达国家的扩张性货币政策是当前全球通货膨胀的重要原因。


The disruption of supply chains caused by COVID-19 is another important reason for global inflation. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the world held a "wait and see" attitude, which led to even more serious spread of the contagion. The spread of the virus led to the cessation of production in some areas and subsequent serious shortages of supplies. That said, the labor shortages caused supply shocks. When demand recovers quickly but supply recovers more slowly, inflation occurs. COVID-19 has also led to chaos in transportation services, with rising freight prices and tight capacity, and this phenomenon has also pushed up global inflation.
新冠疫情导致的供应链中断是全球通货膨胀的另一个重要原因。在新冠疫情暴发之初,世界上许多国家都持“观望”态度,这导致了疫情更为严重的传播。病毒传播导致一些地区停产,随后供应严重短缺。也就是说,劳动力短缺造成了供应冲击。当需求迅速恢复,但供应恢复较慢时,就会发生通货膨胀。疫情还扰乱了运输业,货运价格上涨,运力紧张,这一现象也推高了全球通胀。


The Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in February is exacerbating the problem of global inflation. The conflict directly leads to global energy jitters. NYMEX crude oil was $95.72 per barrel on Feb 28, just as the hostilities began. On March 7, the price rose to $130.50 per barrel, which is the highest level since August 2008. For US CPI data, the sub-item "Energy" (fuel, electricity and gasoline) prices rose by as much as 32.0 percent and 30.3 percent, year-on-year, in March and April. Another sub-item, "Transportation "increased 22.6 percent and 19.9 percent, respectively.
今年2月爆发的俄乌冲突加剧了全球通胀问题。这场冲突直接导致全球能源紧张。就在冲突爆发之初,2月28日纽约商品交易所原油价格为每桶95.72美元。3月7日,油价上升至每桶130.50美元,为2008年8月以来的最高水平。美国CPI数据显示,3月和4月,“能源”(燃料、电力和汽油)分项价格同比分别上涨32.0%和30.3%。另一个分项“运输”分别增长22.6%和19.9%。


The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had an impact on minerals and agricultural products. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prices of aluminum, nickel and copper have risen significantly. As an important food-producing region in the world, Ukraine's agricultural production and exports have also been greatly affected. Global supplies of wheat, sunflower oil and other agricultural products have been seriously disrupted. Food prices are also an important part of the CPI, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has undoubtedly contributed to the rise of global food prices.
俄乌冲突对矿产和农产品市场也产生了影响。自冲突爆发以来,铝、镍和铜的价格大幅上涨。作为世界上重要的粮食生产地区,乌克兰的农业生产和出口也受到了很大影响。全球小麦、葵花籽油和其他农产品的供应已被严重扰乱。食品价格也是CPI的重要组成部分,俄乌冲突无疑是导致全球食品价格上涨的原因之一。


In China, COVID-19 is increasingly coming under better control because of appropriate prevention policies. The industrial chain operates regularly, and the supply shock is relatively muted compared with other countries. In 2020 and 2021, the value of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to China was $163 billion and $173 billion, respectively. Foreign capital flowed into China to take advantage of its potential. These FDI statistics reflect the stable business environment in China and how foreign companies vote with their money and strategies.
在中国,由于政府采取了适当的防控政策,疫情逐渐得到有效控制。产业链运行正常,与其他国家相比,供应冲击相对较小。2020年和2021年,流入中国的外国直接投资(FDI)分别为1630亿美元和1730亿美元。外国资本流入中国是看中了中国市场的潜力。FDI统计数据反映出中国营商环境稳定,也反映出外国企业如何用资金和决策表明他们的立场。


The Chinese government also adopted expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in 2020. However, when compared with other countries, China's policies were relatively mild. Actually, the growth rate of the M2 hit a peak of 11.1 percent in May and June 2020, and began to decrease gradually after that time. In comparison with the US and EU, China's CPI and PPI are relatively low. In April, China's CPI growth was 2.1 percent. Although the PPI's growth rate was still high at 8.0 percent, this can be seen as the result of the growing price of global commodities to a greater extent.
2020年,中国政府也采取了扩张性货币和财政政策。然而,与其他国家相比,中国的政策相对温和。实际上,M2的增长率在2020年5月和6月达到了11.1%的峰值,之后开始逐渐下降。与美国和欧盟相比,中国的CPI和PPI相对较低。4月份,中国的CPI增长率为2.1%。尽管PPI的增长率仍高达8.0%,但这可以看作是全球大宗商品价格不断更大幅度上涨的结果。


On the whole, the Chinese government has been doing well in controlling inflation. China does not "export" inflation. In contrast, China is playing a positive role in reducing global inflation and stabilizing global prices.
总的来说,中国政府在控制通货膨胀方面表现出色。中国不“出口”通货膨胀。相比之下,中国在缓和全球通货膨胀和稳定全球价格方面发挥着积极作用。

来源:中国日报

作者:Zhou Xuezhi, Pan Yuanyuan
编译:董静

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